Election 2015: A Silver Lining In A Close Race

seatprojectionssept142015

cdnelxncircleThis morning’s Nanos poll puts the Conservatives in the lead with 31 per cent support nationally. The NDP and Liberals are tied at 30 per cent. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8%.

In other words, it’s still a three-way tie and it doesn’t look like that’ll change any time soon.

And it has occurred to me that there’s one bright spot in this incredibly tense race: As long as Harper and the Conservative Party figure they’ve got a pretty good shot at forming government, they won’t fire up the paper shredders. So, if the Liberals or NDP break from the pack at the last minute, we stand a decent chance of finding out some of the rotten business Harper’s gang have been up to for the last four years — I mean the business that isn’t currently before the courts.

But if it had been a foregone conclusion all along that the Conservatives were going to lose, you can bet the recycling bins behind the PMO would have been filled to bursting by now.

Author: Paul Dechene

Paul Dechene is 5'10'' tall and he was born in a place. He's not there now. He's sitting in front of his computer writing his bio for this blog. He has a song stuck in his head. It's "Girl From Ipanema", thanks for asking. You can follow Paul on Twitter at @pauldechene and get live updates during city council meetings and other city events at @PDcityhall.

6 thoughts on “Election 2015: A Silver Lining In A Close Race”

  1. Now we have the Leap Manifesto! I`m in a position where I talk to a great deal of people during a day and a lot of those folks are pulling away from Mulcair after reading and hearing about this Manifesto today. Mulcair MUST DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM THESE CRAZIES if he wants to gain at the polls. Paul, have you read the manifesto? If not you owe it to yourself to do so, you`ll then understand what is happening in the polls in the last 48 hrs. Serious stuff Id say!

  2. What a lot of things you are scared of, Indy. “There’s CRAZIES on the loose trying to force solar panels on us all!! HIDE THE CHILDREN!”

    You’re like a timid little bunny.

    A couple questions:

    1. Have you read the manifesto. Like, with your eyeballs?
    2. Have you read anything I’ve written in the last seven odd years? Again, with your eyeballs?

    If you answered “Yes” to 1, then you should realize that reasonable people (like me) won’t find that list terribly threatening. Treat First Nations people with respect. Transition to alternative energy sources. Stop exploiting poor people with stuff like the Temporary Foreign Worker program. The worst that can be said about Leap is that it will seem too ambitious to lame-os and people who don’t read — like, with their eyeballs.

    If you answered “Yes” to 2, then I have to wonder what would make you think I’d look at that manifesto and say something other than, “I’d sign that.”

  3. Some of those Liberal voters gotta decide that Trudeau’s “Just not ready” and jump to the NDP so they can at least beat the Cons to a minority. The Leap Manifesto is fine, a worthy blueprint moving forward. Canadians gotta stop waking up and walking around frightened all day like they’re holding their poop in that we’ll collapse if we go back to being intelligent and informed like we were 30+ years ago and not driven and fed by endless capitalist fearmongering and propaganda. That’s it…just let all that uncomfortable poop out, ahhh, don’t you feel better?

  4. Paul,

    Fair point that the crux of the manifesto isn’t radical, but do you think there’s a risk it will hurt the NDP’s chances of attracting swing voters?

    It’s easy to say “well, did you actually read the manifesto”, but how likely are average people to go and read the document? People could read about Justin Trudeau’s time in parliament but it’s easier to digest the “just not ready” message.

    I think the leap manifesto will be positioned as Naomi Klein and a bunch of leftist Toronto artist’s and unions playing politics at the expense of the west. Look at Peter Foster’s article in the Financial Post and his comparison’s to Mao’s great leap forward. I’m already seeing people on Facebook describe it as such.

    In such a tight three way race, the leap manifesto could help people vote strategically. It might be a strategic vote against the NDP though. Particularly in Western Canadian ridings like Regina- Lewvan.

  5. By the looks of the Manifesto, it’s been in the works for a long time. Maybe even dates to before the NDP were leading in the polls. I suspect it was meant to be positioned against a Conservative vs LIberal election.

    That’s a guess.

    I think you’re right about the way the media is framing it and the way that Con-leaning voters will read it. And it’s almost funny how easily people expressing concern for the environment has been turned into a liability for the NDP. (I mean, how dare they … care?!?!) It’s especially funny considering it isn’t in any way affiliated with the NDP.

    I suspect the big problem for the NDP will be that you’ll end up with Mulcair, when pressed, having to deny it. And that’ll disappoint his base — a core of left-leaning voters who see the environment as the most important issue of the time (I agree with them on that, btw). Those left-leaning, default-NDP voters are already, I suspect, not Mulcair’s biggest fans because of the way he’s been positioning himself as a centrist.

    In other words, I agree with you about how there is the “real” manifesto and the “fantasy bugaboo under the bed that will destroy us all” manifesto that the media is writing about. But I suspect what’s actually going to happen is both manifestos will be forgotten within a week.

    In the meantime, Harper will trot it out to try and brand the NDP as a pack of radicals.

    I think the best Mulcair can do is say, “I’ve actually read the manifesto because I take the concerns of all Canadian citizens seriously. And I find it disturbing how easily Mr Harper dismisses legitimate concerns about our environment.” Then he could cherry pick a few items from the list and call them “reasonable suggestions worthy of consideration” and then reaffirm his commitment to pipeline construction that involves proper environmental controls.

    But I’m willing to bet you that he’ll cock it up. Because the Left is soooo good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

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